Smart market timing Strategies

Is it too late to sign-up to be a TrendTimer
charter subscriber?

It's not too late! As a way to celebrate the launch of the TrendTimer service, we're offering deeply discounted (40% off!) charter membership subscriptions for our first 200 customers. As of today (May 27, 2017), we still have charter memberships available, but this offer will end without notice once the limit has been reached. Click here for details.
TrendTimer charter memberships. Limited time offer!

What is TrendTimer?

TrendTimer is a revolutionary software product designed to help you create easy to follow momentum and trend following investment strategies that have historically not only outperformed the 'buy and hold' returns of the S&P 500, but also minimize risk by shifting your investments to safer (bond or cash) funds when down trends are identified.

TrendTimer is easy to learn even for beginning investors, and offers a variety of unique features not found in any other investment service.
sucessful market timing

What kind of investors use TrendTimer?

TrendTimer is the perfect tool for investors:
  • Who are unsatisfied with the mediocre 'buy and hold' returns the market has provided over the last decade.
  • Who are saving for retirement.
  • Who strive to both maximize profits and protect against risk.
  • Who wish to follow successful trading strategies with clear easy follow buy and sell signals.
  • Who realize that the best investment advice doesn't come from hot tips, investment advisors with questionable motives, or talking heads on television.
  • Who are not day traders making dozens of trades per week. Most TrendTimer strategies trade no more than once every 1-3 months.
  • Who are determined to achieve financial success!

What are TrendTimer trading strategies?

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TrendTimer can be used to generate an unlimited variety of trading strategies. As a subscriber, you can generate your own strategies using the TrendTimer software, or alternatively use any of the hundreds of ready-to-use pre-generated strategies. Each strategy trades between up to one dozens stocks (or funds). At the end of each trading day the strategy provide instructions for which stock should be owned. The goal is simple: Beat the return of the S&P 500. In the example Momentum-Trend strategy below the colored line segments depict when the various stocks are owned. The green line represents the 'buy and hold' return of the S&P 500. Visit the results page to view hundreds of example strategies that have doubled, or in many cases tripled the return of the S&P over a 20 year period.
Funds Traded
Symbol
1 Day
1 Month
1 Year
artsexylightbox

Do I need Windows to use TrendTimer?

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Currently the TrendTimer software only runs on Windows. However, for non-windows user we offer a "web-only" subscription plan, available at a reduced cost. With the web-only plan, you can still follow any of the hundreds of example strategies. Simply sign in, and begin reviewing the strategies. When you find strategies you want to follow, simply flag them to be included in the TrendTimer nightly signals email. The nightly email contains simple to follow instructions about which trades to make. The TrendTimer web-only subscription is also a great choice for anyone who isn't interested in creating their own strategies and would prefer to simply follow existing strategies. There are many TrendTimer subscribers love to experiment with the software and enjoy exploring all the advanced functionality. There are others who would prefer a simpler solution, and the web-only subscription is a great "no fuss" option that you may want to consider.

How does TrendTimer deliver buy and sell signals?

Each night after the market closes, when the Trendtimer application will download the latest prices for the funds and stocks used by the trading strategies you are following. You can load saved strategies to view the lastest signal. You may also flag any strategy to have its signal delivered automatically in a convienient nightly email. The email contains alerts for any new signals. You do not need to have the TrendTimer application running for the emails to work. The nightly email is sent from the TrendTimer servers. When you receive the nightly email, simply follow the instructions provided when the market opens the next day. Example email:


Why do most investors fail to beat the S&P?

One of the main reasons investors fail is that they are driven by their emotions. Our limbic system (the area of the brain responsible for emotion, behavior, and motivation) creates primitive urges that often lead to poor investing decisions. We are creatures driven by greed, fear, ego, and in many cases are our own worst enemy when it comes to investment decision making.
The pitfalls off emotional investing our numerous:
  • Panic selling at the bottom of a bear market.
  • Buying into market euphoria and investing at the peak of a bull market.
  • Holding on to losses for too long "If I just wait a bit longer, maybe this stock will recover"
  • Rushing into a 'hot' investment without fully understanding it.
  • Missing out on an entire bull market by waiting for a good entry point (that never comes). "This rally can't last... I'll wait for a pullback."
  • Fearing to make the wrong decisions, so making no decision at all.
  • When things get tough, adopting an "out of sight, out of mind" attitude. "I haven't looked at my statements for months.. it's too depressing!"
  • Missing out on big gains by selling winning investments too soon.
  • Impulsively buying or selling investments because your gut tells you how the market will react to a certain events.

How does TrendTimer help avoid the pitfalls of emotional investing?

One of the key benefits of TrendTimer investment strategies is that they are mechanical. You simply need to pick strategies and follow the signals. Once you make a decision to following a strategy, you should follow the signals religiously. This is extremely important, and it takes some discipline, thought, and practice. To be a successful mechanical investor you must:
  • Keep your emotions in check.
  • Don't second guess the strategies you have decided to follow.
  • Train yourself to be a calm, detached investor.
  • Understand that even the best trading strategies have periods where they lose money or underperform the 'buy and hold'. This is normal and should be expected.
  • Understand that the talking heads on the financial networks have their own agenda and many have questionable motivations. Tune them out.
  • Diversify your investments. For example, if you have $200,000, you could invest $10,000 in 20 different strategies. Diversification can help reduce volatility and protect against losses.


Once you make the commitment to follow TrendTimer strategies, you will soon appreciate, and take comfort in the fact that you no longer need to worry about what the markets next move will be. You simply need to follow the signals.

What types of investments does TrendTimer recommend ?

TrendTimer can be used to create market momentum and trend following strategies for all U.S. stocks, ETFs and Mutual Funds. For TrendTimer Momentum-Trend strategies, any combination of stocks, etfs and mutual funds can be used. Stocks and leveraged ETFs works great in Momentum-Trend strategies because they tend to have greater upward momentum than index funds or heavily diversified mutual funds. Momentum-Trend strategies work by identifying the current momentum leader from a basket of stocks. For a given basket of funds there is normally 1 or 2 that are currently performing better than the rest. Momentum-Trend strategies capitalize upon the strength of these leaders. For TrendTimer Basic (2 fund) strategies we recommend that you invest mostly in index funds (mutual funds or etfs).

Index funds match the returns of the overall market and tend to establish more reliable trends (both up and down) than stocks. Since TrendTimer basic strategies work by identifying trends, they generally works better when used with index funds.


What about mutual funds?

Mutual funds are certainly popular, but one of the dirty secrets of the mutual fund industry is that the vast majority of Mutual Funds do not beat the returns of the S&P index! According to Lipper Inc. only 15% percent of mutual funds outperform the S&P 500 over a 20 year period. In fact the average mutual fund return lags behind the market return by approximately 2%. 2% may not sound like much but this difference can have a dramatic effect on your returns over time. See the following example of how a $10,000 starting investment grows over time with both 8% and 10% annual returns.
5 Year
10 Year
20 Year
30 Year

Growth of $10,000 investment

8%

$14,693
$21,589
$46,609
$100,626

10%

$16,105
$25,937
$67,275
$174,494

Do I need to be an experienced investor to use TrendTimer?

Absolutely not. Using TrendTimer is easy! At first glance, the graphs and user interface may look complicated, but don't be intimidated. The basics of TrendTimer can be learned within minutes, which makes it a great tool even for beginning investors. Once you understand the basics, there are more advanced features, but even these are easy to understand.

What's wrong with the 'Buy and Hold' method of investing?

Historically, a 'Buy and Hold' approach has delivered reasonable returns. However,the market crashes in 2000 and again in 2008 had devastating, long lasting effects on many investors portfolios. It simply doesn't make sense to stay invested during prolonged bear markets. There is a better way to invest!

TrendTimer can help identify trading strategies that will exit the market before losses are too significant, and re-enter once the next bull market is established. The table to the right demonstrated that significant bear markets happen frequently, but it's usually the case that significant market gains follow these downturns.
1973
1980
1987
1990
2000
2008

Most Recent Bear Markets

During in
Months

21
21
4
3
31
18

Bear Market Magnitude

-48%
-27%
-34%
-20%
-49%
-50%

1 Year return after bottom.

38%
58%
23%
29%
34%
38%

What is Market Timing?

All TrendTimer trading strategies use technical indicators (such as moving averages, MACD, RSI etc) to help identify upward and downward trends in the market. The goal of market timing is to maximize profits and minimize risk by identifying the current market trend in order to invest in the market while the market is trending higher and to switch to safer, less volitile funds (such as cash or bond funds) when the market is trending lower.


Looking at the graph of the S&P 500, it's easy to see the long term bull market and bear market trends:
S&P long term trends
Viewing a shorter time period reveals shorter term market trends:
S&P short term trends
TrendTimer will help you ride the markets up when they're thriving, and avoid bear market downturns. When a new bear market is detected, TrendTimer strategies switch to cash (or bond) funds and you'll wait patiently, ready to re-enter when the next great buying opportunity presents itself.
In this simple "2 fund" strategy show on the right, notice how the strategy switched to cash (the red lines) in both 2000 and again in 2008 to avoid the worst of both market crashes. You'll see similar red lines (indicating an exit to cash/bonds) in the graphs of most TrendTimer strategies during these bear market periods. Simply avoiding the bear markets helped this example strategy beat the market return. While bear market avoidance is an imporant element any trading strategy, the real gains come when you add in TrendTimers 'Momentum-Trend' feature that helps determine which single stock (from a basket of 12) currently has the most upward momentum. Repeatedly hitching a ride only on the stocks with the greatest upward momentum has historically helped propel returns to levels far above the S&P 500 return. See the example Momentum-Trend strategies below.
moving average
Nasdaq 100 Momentum-Trend Strategies
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View all 'NASDAQ 100 Strategies' strategies

How much does the TrendTimer service cost?

There are 4 affordable subscription plans. Fortunately for you, we're currently offering deeply discounted (40% off) charter membership subscriptions for our first 200 subscribers! Scroll down for details. The TrendTimer "charter" yearly plans costs just 73 cents per day! Your investments and your financial future are important. Clearly you know this, or you wouldn't be here! The value of your portfolio likely rises or drops hundreds (and for some thousands) of dollars every day. The cost of a TrendTimer subscription is a small price to pay for the numerous benefits it can provide. Don't wait to sign up as our charter membership promotion will end without notice! Your satisfaction is 100% guaranteed. If for any reason you aren't thrilled with the TrendTimer service, simply cancel for a (pro-rated) refund of your subscription.
TrendTimer Charter web-only yearly membership TrendTimer Charter yearly membership TrendTimer Charter web-only monthly membership TrendTimer Charter monthly membership 4

How do I cancel my subscription?

You may cancel your subscription at any time simply by visiting the "My Account" menu link (shown only to subscribers). You may also send an email to support@trendtimer.com with your request. Please remember to include your userid, First name, last name, and email address. Please provide contact information so that we may contact you if we have questions in regards to canceling your order.

Does TrendTimer recommend individual investments I should make?

TrendTimer is an investment tool and online service. While we present subscribers with hundreds of sample strategies that can be followed, it is important to understand that we are not in the business of providing specific advice about which strategies to follow, or which stocks (or funds) to own. As a subscriber, you are responsible for all the investment decisions that you make. If you're looking for advice about specific stocks to own, there are numerous investment newsletters and websites that you can subscribe to in order to get some ideas.

Does TrendTimer guarantee results?

TrendTimer is a wondeful investment tool, but is not a crystal ball. TrendTimer can help subscribers discover trading strategies that have historically provided fantastic results, but there is no guarantee that any indvidual strategy will provide the same results in the future. Any single strategy can fail, so we do encourage subscribers to diversify their portfolios by spliting their investment dollars between at least 10-20 strategies. Proper diversification helps reduce risk.
The 100 "Nasdaq 100" example strategies listed on the Results screen have (as of 7/2013) on average provided annual returns of over 29% each year since 1994 and beat the S&P result 17 out of the last 20 years. This is a great track records, but it is unlikely that the strategies will continue to earn this return over the next 20 years. But they don't need to. The average return for the S&P for this same period was around 8%. If you're able to earn 8% (or 10% or 12%, or 15%) per year, you're well ahead of the game. Over time your portfolio will grow substantially and you will achieve finacial independence.